Hurricane researchers Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University project a higher probability that a tropical storm (24.8%) will reach the vicinity of New York City and surrounding boroughs than will a category 1-2 hurricane (7.4%) or category 2-4 hurricane (1.7%) in 2006. Despite the low likelihood that a physically strong storm is to make landfall this season, the New York City Office of Emergency Management (OEM) is taking zero chances, and rightfully so. Much of the New York area is at or slightly above sea level.

OEM has assessed flood vulnerabilities and determined that Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Staten Island are most susceptible to storm surge from a category 1 hurricane and higher. The Bronx and Queens are more likely to suffer extensive damages from a category 2 and higher.

A tropical storm is an intense tropical cyclone that packs winds from 38-73 mph (61 – 117 km/hr). At 39 mph, a tropical storm is named. If the system achieves wind speeds of 79 mph or greater, it is then classified as a hurricane. Hurricane categories are delimited by wind speeds. Category 1 storms generate wind speeds 74 – 95 mph (119 – 153 km/hr), with 4-5 foot surges; category 2: 96-110 mph (154-177 km/hr), and 6-8 foot surges; category 3: 111-130 mph (178-209 km /hr), with 9-12 foot surges; and category 4: 131-155 mph (210-249 km/hr), with 13-18 foot surges.

INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101

OEM, realizing the region’s extreme vulnerability, is taking proactive steps to prevent a repeat of a Hurricane Katrina-like disaster. Past hurricane events in or near New York are also behind the call for action.

In 1893, a category 1 hurricane completely erased a resort off the Rockaways in southern Queens. A category 3 hurricane in 1938 made landfall over Long Island and advanced to New England, killing 10 people in New York City and costing millions in repair. Since then, multiple hurricanes have come in the vicinity of New York and the five boroughs, but a slight eastward trajectory is believed to have prevented significant damage.

INTERACTIVE: Hurricane Tracker

However, with warmer waters near the coast coupled with projected increased hurricane intensity for this season, the worst-case scenario warrants attention. To find out if you live in an evacuation zone, check out http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/emols/emols.html .